How Health Care Played

Posted by Bill Pierce

As indicated last night and confirmed this morning, Senator Clinton had a great night and has managed to postpone her exit from the race.  However, despite her wins most pundits still believe that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee.  But given how wrong pundits have been this year, don’t bet your house on their opinion.

Exit polls from Texas and Ohio show interesting results when it comes to health care.  First, while health care remains among the top three issues, it is now third in both states, well behind the economy which is at the top.  Just a few days ago it was the number two issue in Texas and only number three in Ohio by a slim margin according to the Washington Post-ABC News survey.  Last night I asked the question about how the slowing economy and voters’ angst about the economy would impact how strongly they felt about health care reform.  I suggested as voters worried more about their own well-being and the economy, their more altruistic feeling about adopting a universal health care plan might wane.  While I’m not ready to say that’s what is happening, the results indicate this trend may be developing.  This would not be good news for Senator Clinton and here’s why:

The other interesting result is the split between Clinton and Obama on health care.  In Texas 21 percent of voters in the primary thought health care was the top issue while 23 percent thought it was Iraq and 49 percent thought it was the economy.  Of those who thought it was health care, Clinton won 58 percent and Obama got just 4O, a sizable and important margin for Clinton — especially given she lost the other two issues to Obama yet narrowly won the state.  In Ohio her margin on health care was much closer.   Of the 19 percent who thought health care the top issues, she only won 52-47.  She lost on Iraq 53-47 (19 percent also thought it the top issue) but among the well out in front 58 percent who thought the economy was the top issue she also won 52-47.

While it seems apparent that her economic message matched up best with voters in Ohio, in Texas it did not (She lost 50-49).  The only consistent for her was health care.  She won health care voters in both states and in the close race of Texas it was by a large margin.

Bottom line — health care remains a potent issue for Senator Clinton.  Now if she can somehow attach that to the change message that Obama has tapped into she may have the makings of a comeback.  But then again it may be too little too late, especially if the economy continues to decline and voters’ angst continues to increase.  Maybe the pundits will be right this time.