Boxer v. Fiorina: Five Trends to Watch

Emily Johnson is a senior associate in APCO’s Sacramento office and has been watching California’s U.S. Senate race.

Not very long ago, Republicans at the national level set their sights on California’s junior Senator. Since being elected in 1992, Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer has been an unapologetic and unabashed liberal, has never faced a tough opponent, suffers from approval ratings below 50%, and – now that former HP CEO Carly Fiorina is challenging Boxer in the general election and  attacking her unremarkable record of legislative accomplishments – is finally facing an opponent of formidable strength and resources.

When Fiorina won the right to challenge Boxer in the June primaries, the stage was set for a Republican upset in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican Senator since 1988 – a state  that Barack Obama won by a record-setting 24 point margin just two years ago.

In recent weeks, however, polls have started trending in Boxer’s favor. But four weeks is an eternity in politics. Here are a few of the stories and trends to watch as the election nears:

1. Absentee ballots – More than six million California voters can begin voting by mail this week. There are no more debates between Fiorina and Boxer scheduled and, therefore, few planned statewide news events to sway voters’ opinions of the candidates. Polling numbers over the next few days will likely start to reflect actual votes cast. Will voters be eager to check an item off their to-do list or will they wait to hear more (ads) from the candidates before casting their ballots?
2. Ads – In response to recent polls, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is spending $2 million to run ads on behalf of Fiorina. The move to support Fiorina comes, in part, because she trails Boxer in fundraising (as of June 30, Boxer had almost 12-times as much cash on-hand as Fiorina) and has so far been unable to match her in advertising spending in an incredibly expensive media market. Will the NRSC’s ad buy have an impact on voters and, if so, will Boxer ramp up her hard-hitting ads as well?
3. Democratic turnout and DTS voters – Though national newscasts are reporting on the anti-Democratic wave that’s sweeping the nation, it’s important to remember just how big of a party registration hurdle Fiorina must overcome in California. Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 2.3 million voters with another 3.4 million who are “Decline to State” (DTS). Boxer currently leads in polls among DTS voters but Republicans are significantly more enthusiastic (a 15 point margin over Democrats in one poll) about voting this year.
4. Latino voters – The recent Los Angeles Times/USC poll, which used bilingual dialers while oversampling Latinos, found Boxer leading Fiorina by 40 points among registered Latino voters. The same poll found that Latino voters were less enthusiastic than White voters. Will the controversy over Meg Whitman’s undocumented housekeeper motivate Latinos to vote and – if so – will Republican candidates like Fiorina take a hit for the Whitman campaign’s stinkbomb?
5. The Obama Effect 2.0 – The president’s approval ratings in California are not nearly as abysmal as they are elsewhere in the nation, with 63% of registered voters having a favorable impression of him and 56% approve of the job he is doing. Polling also shows California voters want a U.S. Senator who “mostly supports” the president’s policies. Will fundraising and campaign appearances by Joe Biden and Michelle Obama remind voters of these preferences when they head to the voting booth? (For more APCO viewpoints on President Obama’s effect on the mid-term elections, click here.)

If Fiorina can’t pull off what, as of now, looks like a longshot at unseating Boxer, the Republicans’ hopes of securing a majority in the U.S. Senate may be dashed. Only time will tell.