2010 UK Election Night Guide

With local elections taking place on the same day as the general election and additional checks being made in respect of postal votes, it is expected that the election results will take longer to be counted than has been the case in recent general elections.

10pm

As polling stations close, the result of the BBC/ITV/Sky News joint exit poll will be published.  The same data will be given to all news organisations, but they will each have some flexibility in how to interpret it.  A health warning: in some years, these exit polls have proved accurate, but in many others, they have been wrong.   Expect politicians and commentators to say that they are waiting for the “real results” before passing judgment.  Counting begins in seats declaring overnight.

11pm

The first result is declared, expected to be Houghton & Sunderland South.  It is a safe Labour seat, so although analysts will look at the change in share of vote, they will still be wary of reading too much into this result.

Two further Labour safe seats will compete to be first to declare and their results are likely to be announced this hour: Sunderland Central and Washington & Sunderland West.  The Conservatives have added Sunderland Central to their revised target list, but anything other than a Labour win would be a real shock, requiring 13% swing – landslide territory for the Tories.

Midnight

For the first time all of the constituencies in Northern Ireland are being counted overnight. Expect the seats of Antrim North, Foyle, Lagan Valley and Upper Bann to declare this hour.

The first marginal seat to declare is likely to be Birmingham Edgbaston at around 12.45am.  In 1997, this was the first Labour gain of the night and the Conservatives will be hoping to win it back this year.  With a Labour majority of just over 2,000 it is 47^th on the Conservative Party’s target list and one of those seats it should win just to become the largest party.  Birmingham Ladywood also declares at this time and is expected to be a comfortable Labour win, but commentators will look to see how they perform against the Liberal Democrats, who are second place in this seat.

1am

As more marginal seats declare, commentators will look for trends in the key results. However there is unlikely to be in any sense a “uniform swing”.  There will be regional differences and increasingly as we saw in 2005, big variations in individual constituencies. Do not be surprised to see Labour leading the seat table at this stage – most of the early seats to declare are urban and relatively safe for the party.

The Conservatives will expect to win Battersea, which is just 4^th on their target list and the seat of South Basildon & East Thurrock from Labour.

Four interesting seats to watch this hour are Tooting, currently represented by Transport Minister Sadiq Khan, Ipswich, Leeds North East and Telford. All currently held by Labour, these are the type of seats which the Conservatives need to win if they are to achieve their aspirations of winning an overall majority. Vale of Clwyd is a tougher prospect for the Conservatives, but a gain from Labour would herald a strong Tory performance both in Wales and across the country.

Commentators will also be looking at two seats which the Liberal Democrats will hope to gain from Labour, Oldham East & Saddleworth, represented by Home Office Minister Phil Woolas and City of Durham.

Plaid Cymru will be hoping to pick up Arfon and Ynys Mon, both currently held by Labour with small majorities.

2am

Around 60 seats will have declared at this point, with a further 590 still to come.  But now the results really start to come in – with around 150 in the next hour alone.

The Liberal Democrats will be expecting to win Guildford from the Tories, who currently hold the seat with a wafer-thin majority.  A harder seat for them to win will be Norwich South, which Charles Clarke currently holds for Labour.   Meanwhile, Chris Huhne will hope to hold Eastleigh for the Liberal Democrats in the face of a challenge from the Tories.  A longer shot for the Conservatives will be Torbay: if they win that, it means a tough night ahead for the Liberal Democrats.

In Aberdeen South, Labour’s Anne Begg defends a narrow lead over the Liberal Democrats, while in Stirling, Labour is looking to hold off challenges from both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

Conservative strategists will be looking to see whether the party can pick up targets seats from Labour this hour including Dudley North, Wirral South and Stockton South.

Gordon Brown’s seat of Kirkaldy & Cowdenbeath and Nick Clegg’s constituency of Sheffield Hallam are expected to be declared around now, both will be closely watched for what these leaders say at the count.

3am

This is the “rush hour” with results coming in at a rate of more than 3 every minute. Seats across the key regional battlegrounds of London, the West Midlands and the North West declare this hour. Are the Conservatives picking up the seats they need to or is Labour managing to hold on?  Have the Liberal Democrats made as much progress as they hoped or did their vote fall back in the final few days?  Unless the result is close, the broad picture of the election, if not the detail, should by now be becoming clear.  David Cameron’s seat of Witney will declare this hour.  As he speaks at his count, will he be on course to be the next Prime Minister of the UK?

Ed Balls’ constituency of Morley and Outwood should be safe Labour territory, but the Conservatives have recently added the seat to their target list.  Will the seat of Gordon Brown’s closest ally be the shock “Portillo moment” of this election?

One of the key architect’s of the Conservative manifesto, Oliver Letwin, will nervously await his result in Dorset West where he faces a challenge from the Liberal Democrats.

Currently held by Labour, Brighton Pavillion is a three way battle with the Conservatives and the Green Party, whose leader Caroline Lucas hopes to be the party’s first MP.

4am

More than half of the seats will have declared by now, but there will continue to be important results which may affect the final outcome.  If the Conservatives look like being the largest party, but it is unclear whether they will manage to obtain an overall majority, look carefully at the following key seats declaring this hour: Derby North, Gloucester, Hammersmith, Hyndburn, Kingswood and Lancashire West. It is these seats the Tories will need to win to take them across the finishing line.

In the Tory/Lib Dem marginals, will the Nick Clegg effect help Susan Kramer to hold off the challenge from Zac Goldsmith in the high profile contest in Richmond Park?

In Scotland, the SNP will be hoping to pick up Ochil & South Perthsire from Labour.

At this point in the night, a lot of commentators will be looking for the results in the East End of London.  Nick Griffin is standing for the BNP in Barking against Margaret Hodge. Labour and Respect go head to head in the seats of Bethnal Green & Bow and in Poplar & Limehouse where George Galloway is trying to unseat Labour’s Jim Fitzpatrick.  Following boundary changes, the latter seat is in fact a three way marginal, with the Conservatives hoping to come through the middle.  Historians will note that this was the seat once held by Clement Attlee.

5am

Around this time the Party leaders will be arriving at their Party headquarters.  With more than 500 seats declared, we should have a clear idea of the overall result.  Will one leader be thinking about moving into No10 or will some or all be preparing for coalition negotiations?

6am

As the major news channels switch over to their day teams, the final seats being counted overnight will be declared.  One of the last to declare will be Hampstead & Kilburn, a three way marginal which the Liberal Democrats will be hoping to win from Labour’s Glenda Jackson.

Friday afternoon

In every election since 1974, the newly elected or re-elected Prime Minister has been to the Palace by mid-afternoon.  If that has not happened, that will mean we are in hung parliament territory and the final 24 seats counting during the day and any recounts carried over from last night, will be scrutinised much more closely than would usually be the case.  Expect results of seats counting Friday from Midday.

As is tradition the Speaker, John Bercow, is seeking re-election in Buckingham, unchallenged by the main parties. He is however facing a contest from UKIP’s Nigel Farage.  The result is expected around 2.30pm.

Friday afternoon is also when the majority of local election contests are counted across the country.  Although somewhat overshadowed by the election of MP’s, the outcome of these contests will be important not only for local democracy and the delivery of services, but will also have an impact on the strength of the parties and their activist base in years to come.