Posted by Craig Fuller

Think about it.

During this presidential contest…

…McCain’s campaign has been declared dead and buried.
…Fred Thompson’s campaign was perfectly timed to surge to the top of the Republican field.
…Hillary could not be beaten.
…Obama was too young and inexperienced to mount a successful campaign.
…Democrats would settle on their nominee early.
…Republicans would battle into the spring before they reached a decision.

So, the only thing that seems likely now is the unexpected!

For this reason and a couple of others, I wonder whether there is any other choice for Senator Obama than Senator Clinton.

Here’s how I think the conversation will go….

Senator (Obama), you are going to be the nominee and you need to name your choice for Vice President.

You need someone who first and foremost could do the job of President should something happen that makes it impossible for you to fulfill your responsibilities.

Of course, you should seek out someone who will strengthen the ticket against Senator McCain who remains a surprisingly strong Republican opponent.

We cannot take surprises in a VP candidate’s past that the Republicans and the 527 groups would exploit…so, we need someone who has been tested and vetted.

You have had some issues in some of these large states that we must win to win the election…so, someone that helps in those states is essential.

There will be at least one VP debate and maybe more, so the person has to be able to handle a presidential-style debate.

And, last, while I know it is important to you to have someone you can work closely with….ask yourself, would you rather be President or have a close friend on a losing ticket.

Sir, there is just one person who can check off all the boxes.  Should I get her on the phone?

If you ask, she will accept and YOU WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.

Comments anyone?  Since we cannot think how to make commentary on election results exciting tonight, we thought we would offer something a bit provocative for Virtual Vantage Point readers to ponder…

Posted by Cassandra Pye

There are so many analogies. A two year old fighting sleep. A middle-schooler refusing to admit he likes girls. My 17 year old asking me tonight, yet again, to take a road trip to Vegas with his friends (not!). As I write, North Carolina is over and there are about 200,000 uncounted votes in Indiana; most of them in the northwestern counties that favor Senator Obama. Mrs. Clinton, who currently leads by about 40,000 votes, may eke out a victory, but the answer is, well…

It’s inevitable. The senator from Illinois is going to be the democratic nominee. And, slowly but surely, the media is finally beginning to accept it. Like the toddler before naptime, it’s probably really hard to put away the toys and give up the excitement for awhile. But, the pundits are finally giving in on just about every network. There’s talk about Michigan and Florida (just about a non-issue, now) the final states and when Mrs. Clinton decides to bow out – does she leave on a high note with a potential win in West Virginia, for example? Conventional wisdom says he’ll take the last two (Oregon and Kentucky).

The writing’s on the wall.

Posted by Craig Fuller

Another Tuesday night and the battle for the Democratic nomination continues.  West Virginia comes next on May 13th.
 
However, with Obama winning in North Carolina he did what he had to do.  As a result, consider these facts:
 
Senator Obama will win more delegates tonight.
Senator Obama has been winning more of the Super Delegates since February.
Senator Obama will at least divide the remaining delegates.
Senator Obama has more votes (leaving out Michigan and Florida).
 
These are facts that seem to suggest the outcome….but, the contest continues and I can’t tell who is cheering more loudly, the media or the Republicans.

Posted by Cassandra Pye

For moms, this time of year ranks first — even ahead of the winter holidays for some — as the busiest time in the calendar year. The weeks between Spring break’s close and the end of the school year are crammed with class plays, spring sports, writing projects, graduation planning and early scheduling for summer activities – and, that’s just part of the list. It’s hectic and demanding. It can be expensive. And, it means more time than usual on the road. Thus, I’m not surprised as we head into today’s primaries that the mom-blogs are full of chatter about gas prices, tax rebate checks and money. It’s the economy, my dear.

The candidates, none of whom really have to worry about what it costs to fill their SUVs or the fact that the price of milk and veggies is startling, are still stumbling in my opinion to make a compelling case for how we make our way out of what feels (in California, at least) like a real crisis. Women are making hard choices, especially those living on single incomes. Indiana should have been the place to launch a serious discussion about short- and long-term fixes. Mommy bloggers want the candidates to knock off the sniping and the sound-bites…we’ve got too much to get done between now and the first week of June.

Happy Mothers’ Day.

Posted by Craig Fuller

Here we are in May, and Tuesday primaries are providing their own form of drama for the Democrats once again. Will it end tonight…somehow I doubt it.

We will discuss this further tonight from our varied perspectives at Virtual Vantage Points. For now, I commend to readers following the campaign drama the following two articles from today’s papers. Dan Balz with The Washington Post has an excellent review of the key questions of the moment regarding both Democrats and Republicans. David Brooks from The Wall Street Journal

Eight Questions About Today’s Primaries - Dan Balz

Combat and Composure - David Brooks

Posted by Darren Murphy

Politics is changing in Britain. Labour’s halcyon days under Tony Blair’s leadership are well and truly over – fully reflected in British political blogs today as Conservatives bask in the glory of a set of local election results while Labour lick their wounds.

The Labour Party, in third place with 24%, looks to have recorded its lowest vote for 40 years.   The Conservative Party has performed strongly with 44% of the vote, while the Liberal Democrats have remained more or less becalmed on 25%. 

Nowhere is the changing landscape more starkly on show than in the result of the election for the Mayor of London. Once Labour’s Ken Livingstone was able to stand as an independent and win the election for Mayor; now, tarred with the Labour brush Ken has lost to a right-wing Conservative candidate, Boris Johnson, more associated with comedy programmes than political ones.

Labour lost these election hands down. Why the changing fortunes for the Labour Party?

The change of Prime Minister from Tony Blair to Gordon Brown is part of the answer but only a small part. Blair’s premiership was identified with strong and decisive leadership – even by those who didn’t agree with him – but Gordon Brown’s indecision has increasingly become a subject of comment in the blogosphere and in other parts of the media. In addition Brown’s abolition of the lowest rate of tax in the 2007 Budget – and refusal to accept there were any losers as a result - has come back to haunt Labour candidates in this election as the issue became a symbol of the government’s failure to connect with the electorate as the single working poor were often the biggest losers overall. Add to this the tightening of the economy, the slow down in the housing market, the increase in prices and the general sense of drift and division within the government and Labour’s disastrous downturn in fortunes is easily explained.

The rise of the Conservatives is about leadership too. It is not that David Cameron is the best political leader the Conservative Party has had recently nor is it that he is the most impressive leader currently on offer between the political parties. He has however, managed to take away the fear and hostility that many voters had for the Conservative Party. It was this instinctive dislike of the Conservative Party which partly explains Labour’s recovery in the 2005 General election from poor local election results in 2004. David Cameron has achieved this much at least.

The changed political terrain presents some real challenges for both Labour and Conservative parties. For Labour there will be the inevitable questions about the leadership of Gordon Brown and whether he can regain the confidence of the country. For the Conservatives there will be new questions and renewed scrutiny of their policy programmes. Gordon Brown and his team have to demonstrate clear purpose, vision and direction for the Government.  They need to demonstrate decisiveness as well as delivery. They need to demonstrate Gordon Brown is a leader not a loser before the public make their minds up about him and it is set in concrete. The challenge for David Cameron and his team now is flesh out their policy platform and move beyond simple message delivery to some firmer policy substance.

It is too early to say whether these results herald the beginning of the end for Labour’s period in government. Former Prime Minister Harold Wilson said a week is a long time in politics. The two years before the next general election are a political lifetime. When the General Election comes – probably in 2010 – the economic uncertainty should have eased, Labour should have overcome its current self-inflicted wounds and avoided new ones, Gordon Brown should have shaken off his bouts of indecision and regained his reputation for economic competence. If not then a repeat of Labour’s rout is possible. If so, then Labour can recover to a winning position.

These elections tell us about politics as it is not as it will be. What they do show though is that the public have a new attitude towards both Labour and the Conservative parties. It is no longer impossible for people to countenance a Conservative government. If Labour does not change to meet this new reality then these elections will indeed be seen as the point when the public called for Labour to get its act together but Labour wasn’t listening.

DM