By Ben Steele, APCO London
A vote for the Green Party in a General Election has long been considered a wasted one. All this could change when the polling stations in Brighton Pavilion open on 6th May. Standing for the seat is Caroline Lucas, MEP for the South East England region, and the leader of the Green Party. The party has been treading the path to Westminster for many years now, but at their recent spring conference, Lucas talked about making a “truly historic breakthrough”. Her intentions are quite clear.
The Greens should be confident but not complacent. A recent ICM poll for the Brighton Pavilion seat put the Greens on 35%, with the Conservatives in second place on 27%. They already have 13 councillors in Brighton, equal with Labour, though some way behind the Conservatives (25). At the European elections in 2009, they also received over one million votes. With their support base clearly growing, the announcement to stand down by the Labour incumbent, David Lepper MP, appears to have left the door open to the Greens.
Internal changes have played a role in increasing the Green Party’s credibility and its popularity. In 2008, the party elected its first ever leader, Caroline Lucas. In the past the party had two principal speakers. This confused many, and worried more that thought it lacked leadership and direction. With this resolved the party has also started to broaden its policies beyond traditional green issues. It was the NHS, not the environment that was the main focus of Lucas’s speech at conference. Convincing the electorate they can hold their own on major political issues has previously been a sticking point for the party.
History tells us that the Greens can expect a surge in media interest in the run up to the election in Brighton Pavilion. Independents and minority parties have enjoyed extra attention where they have a realistic chance of winning, and when they have an axe to grind. The ‘Battle for Tatton’ in 1997 saw Martin Bell hailed as a champion against sleaze in politics. Similarly, the Greens who launched a ‘Clean Campaigning’ pledge ahead of the European elections last year may be seen as an alternative to those tainted by the expenses scandal.
Realistically the Greens can only hope to win one seat in Parliament, and a coalition is unlikely even in the event of a hung Parliament. Some will argue that this will mean their ability to make a difference is severely limited, Lucas who has insisted they “are not going to sit impotent”, clearly disagrees.
In order for the Greens to influence and affect the political debate they must look to become a touchstone for the future government’s policy on the environment – ie the government should be ready for support or strong rebuke depending on whether policies match up to Green expectations. Voicing opinions in the media and in the Commons will be crucial to this. Their ability to influence this debate will be greater still should they find a seat on the Environment or Energy and Climate Change Select Committees. In this case, they will certainly be viewed as a respected, perhaps even an expert voice on these issues.
If the Greens can achieve success in Brighton, the party will face the truest test of its credibility. If they can build on this success and make their voices heard in Parliament they may become a feature of Westminster for years to come, should they falter and prove themselves to be way out of their depth, it could be a quick return to political obscurity. Either way, Lucas is set on only one course: “We are going to Westminster to make a difference. We will prove ourselves worthy of victory”.